When the Athletics began to properly invest in the franchise for the first time in years this offseason, putting together their largest Opening Day payroll since 2021 and highest payroll for luxury tax purposes in franchise history, it came with an understanding that the additions of players like Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs would not be enough to propel the club to contention in a crowded AL West division without substantial steps forward from young talent already within the organization.
Fortunately for the A’s, that’s exactly what has happened. The club’s first season in West Sacramento is going quite well, with a 20-18 record that places them second in the AL West even after they dropped their latest series to the division-leading Mariners. With the division’s recent top dogs in Houston and Arlington now both struggling to stay above .500, the A’s have been able to fight their way into contention thanks in large part to excellent performances from recent first-round picks Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom. Wilson, in particular, is an interesting player to consider after he rattled off a 15-game hit streak to open the season. During that time, he hit .368/.368/.544 across 57 plate appearances.
It’s an impressive slash line, to be sure, but his .358 BABIP during that time did not exactly appear sustainable, especially when he had not drawn a single walk during that stretch. Of course, looking at sample sizes of less than 60 plate appearances comes with far too much noise to be all that valuable when discussing balls in play. Wilson took the 150th plate appearance of the season yesterday, providing a slightly larger body of work to examine. Overall, he’s hitting .357/.383/.476 with a wRC+ of 148. He’s walking just 4.0% of the time, and hardly striking out more than that (4.7%). His .361 BABIP is well outside of the typically expected range, and his 2.2% barrel rate shows that he won’t be hitting for much power any time soon; if anything, he’s hitting for more power now (.119 ISO) than expected based on his batted ball results.
All of that suggests that Wilson is extremely unlikely to keep up his current level of production, but that shouldn’t be taken as a suggestion that he’s guaranteed to revert to the 86 wRC+ he posted in 28 games last year. There are two notable hitters who have found great success in the majors in recent years with a similar approach to Wilson at the plate: Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan. Of course, there’s also plenty of players like Nick Madrigal and Billy Hamilton who fail to find success in the majors due to their lack of power. The question remains: has Wilson shown enough similarities to players like Kwan and Arraez that he can be counted on for sustained success as an above-average MLB hitter?
It’s hard to come up with a more straightforward comp for Wilson than Arraez. After all, one need look no further than Arraez’s 2023 season with the Marlins to find a nearly mirror image of what Wilson has done so far in 2025. In 147 games with the Marlins that year, Arraez hit an excellent .354/.393/.469 with a wRC+ of 130. He struck out in 5.5% of his at-bats while walking 5.7% of the time, and his ISO sat at just .115 while he floated a .362 BABIP. Arraez accomplished this feat thanks primarily to his line drive rate, which sat at an MLB-best 28.5%. Hitting the ball on a line that often is a nearly surefire way to rack up a lot of hits. Another key factor is Arraez’s relatively small amount of fly balls; just 28.7% of his batted balls were hit in the air that year, a bottom-ten figure in the sport. That puts obvious limitations on a player’s home run power, but it’s great news for a player’s batting average.
Of course, it should be remembered that Arraez is something of a unicorn. Attempting to replicate his approach leaves a player very prone to year-to-year swings in productivity, as seen by the fact that Arraez himself has stuck with that approach in 2024 and ’25 but seen his wRC+ drop to just 109 in that time due to a 48-point drop in BABIP. Some of that can be explained by a small dip in line drive rate (26.3%), but much of it comes down to the randomness involved with batted balls that aren’t hit especially hard. Perhaps Kwan’s approach, which involves more patience (39.4% career swing rate) than either Arraez (46.0%) or Wilson (51.8%), could be an option for Wilson if replicating Arraez doesn’t work out. But for now, Wilson’s Arraez-esque approach does seem to be working for him. His 23.7% line-drive rate is hardly the best in the league right now, but it’s still a well above-average figure. And his ability to limit soft contact is very similar to Arraez; 16.8% of Wilson’s batted balls have been hit softly this year, as compared to 15.2% of Arraez’s last season.
How do MLBTR readers view Wilson’s future? Will he be able to emerge as a rare unicorn able to get by on pure contact like Arraez, or will he need to make adjustments to be more patient at the plate like Kwan in order to be an above-average hitter? Have your say in the poll below:
He gets on base.
Do I care if it’s a walk or a hit?
Pete?
No you do not.
Regardless of his MiLB numbers, there’s not much scouting reports yet for pitchers facing him for the first time. Wilson, a contact hitter, is swinging early because pitchers are giving him stuff to hit. That will change with more time and they learn him, but his contact rates play, especially in the dry air of that home field, where the ball travels further. Keep it up and he’s due for some nice arb numbers from having that home field for a few seasons, which means Fisher is demoting him tomorrow.
Wilson has a whiff rate below 10% and a squared up rate in the 100th percentile. He’s much closer to Arraez than either Hamilton or Madrigal. Imo, he’s even better than Arraez because he can play a premium position too, and at an average-ish level per outs above average.
Personally I think he can hit a 110 wRC+ and play slightly above average shortstop.
More valuable than Arraez IMO
So silly
Wilson hit .412 last yr of college
Then over 2 minor lg seasons hit .401
Whats the next poll, “is aaron judge gonna hit 50 hrs this yr?”
I mean – he’s a rookie.
He’s played well in the minors (.433 AVG in 2024), and I’d expect he’ll get better as he figures out major league pitching.
As a rookie – he’s absolutely killing it, and that suggests he will be able to bring his elite bat to ball skills to the majors and if he hits well at a defense first position (SS) – he’s likely to be a long-term valuable player.
If anyone watches him, he is a throwback style player in the vein of Arraez, Gwynn, Boggs, Rod Carew…high average, high contact hitter. He isn’t going to walk or strikeout much. Will he be as great as those players? Probably not. But he’s going to hit for high average.
He likely will just be a better version of his dad who was a pretty good ball player.
Why do writers always think BABIP is never sustainable? Good things happen when you have elite bat control and put the ball in play where you want it.
His season BABIP is higher than Jeter and Judge’s career numbers. Let’s think a little.
What’s your point? You don’t think anyone can ever have a higher BABIP than those two? The fact you used two Yankee players shows your bias. Do they happen to be your two favorite players?
I’m actually a Red Sox fan.
Those two have the highest career BABIP of the dataset I originally looked at of players who played “recently”, as in not ty codd, rod carew etc.
Looking at Fangraphs, it looks like Brandon Marsh actually leads in BABIP since 1980 with a .374. But this number seems propped up by a .403 BABIP his rookie year across 70 games. I’m not sure if they weight the career stat by plate appearances or just averaging the values.
People don’t generally have a BABIP as high as Wilson does, look at the numbers. Yes it happens sometimes, but it’s a clear exception and not how things typically behave.
He doesn’t swing and miss and has very elite bat control. Neither player you mentioned have his bat to ball skills. He not a typical player.he might not strike out 40 times this year.
Well Luis Arraez has like a .340 BABIP for his career. Even if Wilson regresses to a .330-.340 BABIP, he’s still going to be hitting like .310.
Very high BABIP usually indicates luck. But a BABIP hovering around .360 isn’t really that unlucky for a contact hitter. I’d expect someone who makes as much contact as Wilson does to have a .350+ BABIP. If he was pushing .400+, then I’d understand why. Not even Tony Gwynn nor Rod Carew had a BABIP of .400+ in a full season.
Right!
I was trying to think of other hitters who had “elite bat control” and Gwynn was one of them.
Wilson is at .361 right now
Gwynn – career .341. passed .361 4 out of 20 seasons.
Rose – career .319. passed .361 2 out of 24 seasons.
Ichiro – career .338. passed .361 4 of 19 seasons.
Manny – career .338. passed .361 5 out of 19 seasons.
It’s just very difficult to sustain it. Many of the other all time great hitters have lower BABIPs (Bonds, Aaron, etc).
Trying to find other guys with a lot of career hits:
Musial – .320 / passed .361 twice in 22 seasons
Yaz – .290 / 0 in 23 seasons
Rickey – .305 / 2 in 25
I’m not saying it’s impossible, just adding context that it’s very difficult to do
Arraez had multiple years with 88 mph exit velocity and never remotely close to a 56 percent ground ball rate.
Wilson could hit a few mph more. And could get ground balls closer to 40 percent and sustain a high babip. But as of today his stats are inflated because of luck.
Ground ball rate is key. 56 percent isn’t hitting 360. But line drives can achieve that even with below average exit velocity.
I’d really love to see how a lineup with Kwan, Arraez, and Wilson would fare against other ballclubs
If you have to see it you are likely out of luck. But if you just want to know how it would fare you could run simulation.
I like it better if they were in the Dodgers Yankees lineup vs Pirates Rockies.
I don’t think he’s ever going to put up gaudy counting stats (aside from Runs), but it’s the A’s, so I think he has a good shot to be a pretty regular All Star pick from them. Feels similar to Arraez and Kwan, but more athletic than the former.
Yes, teams will learn to adjust as much as they can, but let’s also not forget he’s doing this as a guy that JUST turned 23 and was given elite marks on his contact/approach as a draft pick / prospect. A .327 xBA is pretty nuts. There’s usually only around 5ish players that can do that over the course of a full season.
More like he will adjust. He can hit anything. Not much they can do. But he will learn pitchers more each year. Could improve his approach. Increase hard hit.
This is so typical not only of MLBTR, but the kids that have now taken over all the mainstream baseball media.
Shortstop is a defensive position, the 2nd most important one after catcher. So how do we judge a SS (or C)? Why, by his offensive statistics. LOL All the kids are doing it. (Truth be told, defensive stats are pretty much a joke….decides, who has time to watch games when all they’re looking for is – did he catch the ball and throw it?)
Jabob Wilson is the best young, all-around SS I’ve seen in MLB in years. His father was a major league player. Became a coach at high schools and colleges. Coached Jacob, and it shows. The young man is always in position to to make plays, and makes them fundamentally. Yesterday I saw him on one knee in front of the 2B bag in position awaiting the throw from the catcher on a base stealing attempt. The catchers throw bounced to Jacob’s left. In one motion he picked it clean and drove it straight into the sliding runner. The runner beat the throw by a second. Point being: that is exactly how a SS is supposed to execute that play. I seldom see it done that way. Mostly SS’ s stand in front of the bag and then bend down to tag the runner when they get the ball. Wrong. They’re wasting time, off balance, making the play harder than it is and opening themselves up for a major screw-up.
Nevertheless, Jacob is also a hitter. Fundamentally he’s great at that as well. More power will come as he gets older. Comparing his offensive stats to others is nice. It doesn’t begin to address this young mans Baseball IQ and feel for the game. I have to read stupid articles about how great a SS Mookie Betts and Gunner Henderson are and Oneil Cruz was going to be (among others) because they play a position that many players don’t hit well at. How stupid is that thinking? They’re amateur’s playing in the field compared to Jacob. He’s doing the right thing to help his team win one the field…..not in rotisserie league.
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Wondering why the Rays surprise almost every year? Two reasons are because: 1) They always find a veteran catcher they can rework, make sure he handles the pitching staff and blocks balls in the dirt…..any hitting is a bonus; and 2) Always have high Baseball IQ SS’s that play the position fundamentally…..and if they don’t hit much that’s fine….like the catcher they save more runs than most opposing players at their positions do. C and SS are defensive positions.
That is why I have been perfectly content with Nick Allen as the braves starting shortstop. He’s not all that great offensively, but he’s ranked as the top defensive shortstop in the league right now by a wide margin, and it absolutely shows. During aj smith shawver’s no hit bid against the reds a few days back (lost it in the 8th) Nick Allen made 2 spectacular defensive plays both with an expected batting average of .700 and .600. that is insane. His play has been a catalyst for the braves clawing their way out of the gutter this year. And he will give you the occasional RBI to help put the team up, and his base running has been a huge boost for the team as well! He is a fine shortstop and I’m sick of seeing braves fans say we need a new short stop right now… Like what do you mean? Who the heck would we be able to get right now? Any offense the braves get out of him is an added bonus, he’s an otherworldly defender out there and he deserves the playing time he’s getting 10 fold! His defense keeps us in the game more often than not, literally saving runs from being scored, especially when our so called elite hitters are all struggling. If not for his defense we probably would not have as many wins as we do right now! If you have a shortstop save 2 or 3 runs in a game, and you win 2 to 1, that means his defense is one of very few reasons the team won!
How has playing in a minor league park been compared to the last stadium they were in? It was a Pacific Coast League park so I expect it to be hitter friendly. Is it outrageously hitter friendly or is it just somewhat hitter friendly?
You missed an option. Wilson will get even better. Once he learns he doesn’t have to hit everything just because he can he will become more selective. Once that happens he will walk more and hit the pitches in his best swing zone for more power.
I don’t think Wilson will become a much more selective hitter. The swing at everything and make contact at everything approach has always been his trademark. He never walked much in college, the minor leagues, and isn’t doing so in the Major Leagues either, and it’s working. He’s in the bottom 1 percentile of bat speed too, so I doubt he’s going to hit for much power. I don’t think there’s any problem with him being a Luis Arraez 2.0. Arraez hit .328 with a 120 OPS+, but only had a 5.8% walk rate, and hit just 22 home runs from 2022 through 2024. 30 out of 30 teams would take that from their first round draft pick.
Vladimir Guerrero wasn’t selective and he hit the bad pitches better than something down the middle. Sometimes you just roll with a players strengths and leave him alone.
Arraez on offense from a solid defensive SS is very valuable. I don’t think he’s a gold glover. I don’t think he’ll ever walk or hit for power. The league will figure out how to work around him some. I think he’ll have a long, career a bit better than league average.
Poll is scary. People actually believe he won’t make it! He may make some all star games. But he isn’t as good as his stats right now. Hard hit and ground ball numbers make that babip extremely lucky. But he can be a 300 hitter and maybe even 350 after he’s been around longer. 350 now is fake.
You do realize anyone with speed hitting the ball on the ground is a very good thing. Ichiro is in the Hall by doing it.
You do realize Wilson doesn’t have speed. Well obviously you don’t or you wouldn’t have commented such a stupid reply. He also doesn’t bat left which would help.
Oh so now he’s a fat bum. He bunts for hits fairly regularly and that doesn’t happen if you don’t run the bases well. He’s obviously beating ground balls out as well but calling someone stupid works when you only look at his SB’s but that not the conversation. The conversation is him getting hits and you are ignorantly put him in predetermined mould of a hitter that you want everyone to have.
Actually I said the comment was stupid. Didn’t say you were stupid. But since you didn’t understand that I am now thinking you are stupid. I mean I never used the words fat bum sb’s but your stupid mind came up with some weird fantasy that I did.
Mark my words, Jacob Wilson will be an MVP contender in his late 20’s, and those in dynasty leagues, should be rostering him long term. He’s going to hit .330+ on a yearly basis, but what many fail to realize is that he’s playing his home games in a AAA ballpark for the next three seasons before moving into what is expected to be a very hitter friendly Las Vegas ballpark. Given his frame, he’s only going to continue to get stronger and when all is said and done, 5 years from now, Wilson will be winning batting titles while hitting 20 HR and playing a decent shortstop.
The kid is the real deal and he’s been proving doubters wrong his whole life. Why do you think he attended GCU (awesome campus btw) and wasn’t playing in the SEC? It’s because of an industry wide inability to think outside the box. People completely lack hubris. That’s why there were so many doubters when Shohei Ohtani came over. Just because something is rare or hasn’t been done yet doesn’t mean it can’t be done. Appreciate it for what it is and embrace the possibilities of a different way of playing this game we all love.
I think he’ll be a great hitter and win some batting titles, but unless Las Vegas is the most hitter friendly environment for right-handed hitters by a lightyear, it’s going to be extremely difficult for him to hit 20+ home runs, even if he adds 15 pounds of muscle. 63.2 MPH bat speed isn’t going to be enough to hit 20 homers. But there’s nothing wrong with that. Nobody is going to complain if he settles into a consistent batting champion, but only tops out at 12-15 home runs.
Some rookies play like veterans. He’s one of them. High draft pick, good DNA, hard worker. He deserves it and A’s get credit for seeing it